Is S/mileage Doomed?

In the aftermath of the Yuuka graduation announcement, this is something that many blogs (even International Wota - though was perhaps said with more irony than truth) said. Yuuka graduating = death of S/mileage.

Is it the case? I really don't think so.

That isn't how this industry works. If a graduation, even of a popular member, signalled the end of the group, then I'm afraid to say Hello! Project would have died very early on. Instead we find that our favourite groups are still going strong.

The truth is that, while the Yuuka and Saki leaving H!P is a great loss for S/mileage, it's not the end of the world for the group. Those fans who don't find a new favourite member will vanish, sure, but that's not so much a loss for S/mileage as a loss for those fans.

Remember when S/mileage's major debut was first announced? What was it, 10k smile photo submissions in a week or something? They passed that challenge with flying colours. Not just by the dedication of the fans who sent in their own photos and spread the word, but by the dedication of the girls themselves, who went out onto the streets of Tokyo trying to drum up support for themselves.

If those girls hadn't done their best back then, S/mileage wouldn't exist. If those girls weren't doing their best right now, S/mileage wouldn't exist.

But because they are constantly striving to give it their all in the name of the fans, they will continue to exist long after Yuuka is gone.

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More Graduations? Yuuka to leave Hello! Project?

A story published in one morning newspaper in Japan has just caused a frenzy online.

It reports that 1st Generation S/mileage member, Maeda Yuuka, is set to graduate on the 31st of December this year.

Apparently she commented that the wants to leave her duties in Hello! Project in order to focus on her schooling, so that she can get into a good university.

It wouldn't be the first time a member has graduated to go to university. Konno Asami being a pretty well-known example. In fact, schooling is a pretty standard excuse. More often than not it's the one given out by talent agencies when they'd rather not go into too much detail.

It hasn't been confirmed as yet. So it will be interesting to see just whether or not it turns out to be a hoax. Curious is the date chosen. It's traditional for a member to leave during a concert tour, but there is no concerts running in late December, as far as I'm aware. The Winter tour begins in January.

Perhaps it's fake. Perhaps not. 

More on this when (if) Tsunku posts his comments.

EDIT: An official announcement just appeared on the Hello!Project site.

The story is true. It says that she decided to attend high school and remain in S/mileage, but was struggling to do both. And, as she has a desire to attend college after High School, she has decided to leave the company and focus full-time on school, as it would not be fair on her fans if she wasn't giving them her 100%.

I must admit, I hate it when rumours like this prove to be more than just rumours. But we'll continue to support her and wish her luck in her academic life after she graduates.

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The Reasons for Graduations

Every time a H!P graduation is announced, I suddenly find myself surrounded by the same cynicism as the previous umpteen times. What really brought the issue home recently was Ogawa Saki's sudden graduation, and with the recent departure of Takahashi Ai from Morning Musume it has managed to remain somewhat topical.

What exactly is the issue? Graduations, and the motives behind them.

When Sakichi's graduation was first announced, within moments the fanbase was up in arms. It's moments of huge news like this when I love to check member threads on Hello! Online. To see an otherwise sleepy thread suddenly propelled to having two or three dozen people viewing the page at any given moment. News like this has even broken H!O in the past. If I recall, the site went down just after Ai's graduation was first announced as people rushed to confirm and discuss the news.

And so, upon informing my good friend Lone!Wolf of the news, he quickly stated the thing which I've always hated to acknowledge. "Seems it was her own decision," I retorted to his initial cries of anger. "Yeah. And Kanna was ill and Erika wanted to be a model," he sarcastically threw it back at me.

Ouch.

"I don't believe this UFA-created lie." He continued. "We don't know that she wrote it. It might be either UFA told her to say it, or said it for her."

Ouch again.

Such responses are all too common. As with some of the examples he used, when graduations are announced like this, suddenly people are quick to spin it. "Were they covering up a scandal?" "She's pregnant!" and so on.

This is rumour-mongering which, even now, I can't bring myself to permit. Some call it naiveté, but I have always operated by the belief that, if I trust my Idols, they'll never break that trust. They have no reason to lie about why they are leaving, just as I have no reason to doubt them. Does that make me foolish? I dunno. But it's a belief which is far more respectful to the girls themselves. 

I hold that the mistrust of UFA and the girls generated by these announcements is fueled, primarily, by a kind of selfish desire for the girls to never leave. We can't expect them to stick with it all purely for our sake and then lash out at them when they fail to live up to those expectations. Surely it's better that, when the girls feel that this is an industry which they just aren't cut out for, they make their peace and do something else with their lives? So that we can continue supporting her, and she can continue living as a normal girl, away from the stress of the entertainment business.

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Join the Campaign! Get S/mileage debut!

Tsunku has set forth a rather interesting challange for S/mileage. If they can prove that they have a fanbase worthy of it, they will get their major debut.

Perhaps the most famous instance of such a challenge among wota is when Tsunku offered to give the five runners up of the ASAYAN contest to find a new singer for SharanQ a debut as a group, but under the condition that they sell 50,000 copies of their demo single in only 5 days. The group became Morning Musume after achieving the amazing feat in 4 days, and went on to become the highest selling all-female Japanese pop group of all time.

But this time, we are treated to an ultimatum of a totally new kind.

Tsunku says that if they can get 10,000 photos of fans smiling from around the world in the next month, they will get their first single. This means that you, the fans, can once again have an incredible influence over the fate of these four eggs that you wouldn't otherwise have. Your inaction could, in theory, result in Maeda Yuuka, Fukuda Kanon, Wada Ayaka and Ogawa Saki being refused that debut that we all know they deserve.

On the other hand, all it takes is to fill in a short form, stating your email address, age and sex, and uploading a photo of you to be part of the campaign that will allow these eggs to hatch. 

http://form.s-mileage.jp/form

No risk, high return.

At least for the fans.

The one thing that interests me about it is that, from the perspective of the Agency, there is no real benefit to this kind of challenge. At least not in terms of money. They may get 10,000 photos, but it's not a guarentee that those people will actually buy the single. With Morning Musume's challenge 13 years ago, there was an exchange of money. UFA were making profits - although with 50k copies printed it would have been a huge loss if they only managed to sell a few. Low risk, high return. But here, there is no risk but no guarenteed return.

So, if it's not money UFA are after.... What is it?

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